Starting off, let me clarify that I have taken into consideration that I might have over analysed this situation and I would not be surprised to hear from readers that I have drawn conclusions based on past events that might not necessarily be true. I stand to be corrected and am open to the fact that I could be wrong.
I agree that there is a chance that David Cameron has a different agenda entirely and that he is not the enemy that I am making him out to be. Hopefully though this view does shed light in areas that might have been taken for granted and ideally I hope that a better future can be formed from this awareness.
Credit where it is due
The British government have implemented an efficient system. Consistent and reliable outcomes. Accountability and clarity is applied throughout. Our Home Affairs can learn a lot from the department of UK Visas and Immigration.
What we as South Africans don’t realise is that the UK’s border has one of the strongest security protocols in the world. The sharing of criminal databases between countries (and taking consideration thereof) is one aspect that stands out in the UK’s visa decision making process.
Did you know that the UK government have access to our SA Home Affairs database? Meaning that the UK government have the ability to check registered birth parents and registered marriages when making their decisions to grant permission to enter.
In the previous article, I created awareness that the current state of UK immigration is unbalanced and that the UK are experiencing a flood of EU nationals (with lower skillset). The EU freedom of movement treaty is the only aspect holding David Cameron from having complete control over the UK border.
As many of you know, on the 23rd June 2016, the UK will be voting about their involvement in the European Union. The options are two part. Either vote for the UK to stay a member of the EU or vote for the UK to no longer be part of the EU.
I am of the opinion that David Cameron is giving the UK public the illusion of choice here. In either option, David Cameron will get the outcome he is been striving for. This transaction will be a win win for him.
Vote to stay in the EU will come with a referendum, which is a renegotiation of the terms of membership (this is the option he is promoting himself). This option has the least risk for the UK economy. Which makes it the safest bet because the UK government will have more control over new terms whilst knowing the existing or remaining terms and its implications.
The vote to exit the EU will terminate the freedom of movement agreement. Which in turn will allow David Cameron to implement the same non-EU restrictions to EU nationals.
Either way, David Cameron will get his way and he will be able to have complete control over the UK border. Having this control is all that he has been looking for.
Also mentioned in my previous article about the present state of the UK immigration policy is the fact that David Cameron has taken 2 suspicious courses of action recently. He increased the visa fees (that grant working rights) is far more than it ever has been. Instead of the normal 3% per annum, he has changed the UK visas (that grant working and settlement rights) to an increased 25%.
Further to this, David Cameron has implemented this fee increase suddenly. Suddenly in terms of swift announcement with short notice period and suddenly in terms of implementing the increase 3 weeks before his annual review. For the past 5 years, David Cameron has introduced annual fee increases (to “balance inflation”) consistently on the 6th April 2016.
Why the sudden implementation of major increased fees?
Why the major adjustment, far above the inflation rate?
My prediction
My prediction is that David Cameron is already budgeting for the future implications of new rulings. I can only assume that David Cameron has put in place two teams. One team to begin drafting new amendments to their UK immigration policies which will align with the terms of the new EU referendum.
The other team will also draft new legislation in the event that the UK votes to exit the EU membership.
That way, as soon as the voting takes place, David Cameron can eventually claim victory over the UK border. He can declare that the UK border is official closed and he can then begin to deliver his promise to reduce the UK immigration numbers to tens of thousands.
Previously though, UK visa fees were always about the UK government not wanting to spend money on their administration to implement the rulings. Now David Cameron has taken this liberty a step further. He is now charging non-EU nationals for future prospective changes in legislation. No longer are UK visa fees about offsetting the costs so that British nationals (tax payers) do not carry the burden of controlling their border.
Not a fair transaction
David Cameron is taking liberties, taking potential travellers needs for granted, to increase visa costs on prospective travellers and prospective immigrants (way above the inflation rate) so that when the future rules could come in (if my assumption is correct), he has the funding available to easily pay for it, is not very welcoming isn’t it?
The aftermath is going to be interesting.How is David Cameron going to manage the large amount of unskilled work force that has already flooded his country is another question that will hopefully be answered?
I do believe that there is merit to having complete control over the UK border. I just believe that David Cameron has taken the most destructive approach to get there and that the British people are still not aware of the implications his decisions will have on their economy and on them (especially in terms of their ability to have freedom of travel).
What this means to South Africans?
To simplify my predictions, let me help clarify what I predict is going to happen to the UK visas available to South African passport holders.
UK Ancestry visa (South Africans with UK born grandparents): No changes predicted.
UK Settlement visa (South Africans married to British nationals): No changes predicted – ie remain strict.
Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 5 (Point based work permits for South Africans): No changes predicted – ie remain strict.
EEA Family Permit (South Africans married to EU other than British): Major changes and new implementation of fees. Further to this, I expect EU nationals to now also start paying towards NHS.
The Surinder Singh Route (South Africans married to British nationals trying to get around the UK’s strict financial requirement): will come to an end. Either way. UK vote to stay EU members and David Cameron will terminate this provision. UK vote to exit and David Cameron can then easily close this option.
Meaning that either way, David Cameron will be re-enforcing the one way British visa system. So that most British nationals looking to relocate temporarily could easily get caught in not being able to easily return.
South Africans please note that 2017 is not going to be the easiest year to emigrate to the UK. Especially those of you that have always wanted to go abroad but have been putting it off until next year.
Any willing South Africans that are eligible are encouraged to consider making arrangements to go before the 23rd June 2016. Before things get confusing.
Should you have any questions or feedback, please feel free to contact our team of visa guru’s. You are encouraged to email guru@moveup.co.za
If you find this article interesting, I recommend taking a look at my interpretation of the present UK immigration policy and the past UK immigration policy.
Thanks for reading.