The events building up to the 23rd June EU referendum vote as well as the chain reactions thereafter have served as an interesting learning experience. Especially when it comes to making predictions based on speculation.
I am the first to admit that my previous speculations were way off.
1. David Cameron did not setup a contingency plan in the event that the public voted to exit.
2. David Cameron was willing to throw the towel in (easily).
3. Britains investors needed to minimise risk (and in turn caused instability in the financial market).
After the above took place, my previously drawn conclusions are now left compromised and therefore need to be readdressed.
Dramatic Visa Changes Left Unexplained
I am making referrence to the fact the just before the vote, very suspicious changes were made to the existing visa system. I describe the changes as dramatic.
The department of UK Visas and Immigration took the following actions of concern:
1. Broke standard operating procedures and worked for the first time (in a long time) outside the system we rely upon.
(a) Instead of implementing annual fee changes on the 6th April (which has been standard practice for years now), this fee increase was implemented before the 6th April.
(b) Increased the visa fees above the average by 2% (standard practice) to some settlement cases by 25% (far above inflation rate).
2. Made vague announcement with little explanation of their changes. Thereby reducing public knowledge.
3. Gave a very short notice period. Shortly after announcement, these changes where quickly introduced.
The above changes affect non-EU nationals (South Africans). They do not immediately affect EU nationals.
My previous subjective assessment, drew conclusion that David Cameron might needed to access funding to make provision for future changes. In hind sight, I was giving him more credit than what he is due (specifically in terms of preparation for nation changing events).
Why the sudden changes?
One could naturally try justify the British governments actions by saying that “perhaps the British government were looking to protect themselves from increased demand”.
Assuming that they are aware that before any proposed changes, there tends to be a flood of applications (filled with applicants looking to protect themselves from possible visa changes).
If they increase the fees, the public should be deterred from wanting to pursue this opportunity (to reduce the demand and last minute surge).
The above “protection” analogy does not apply in this case though. If the British government truly wanted to deter potential travellers, they would have made bigger effort to make the changes publically known.
I am of the opinion (now) that the British government implemented the changes to settlement visas with the intent to capitalise on inbound change in demand (maximise their return).
This leaves me to question the British governments financial standings. Are they running at deficit and feel the need to recoup on their losses? Or are they distributing the cost of Border administration, using non-EU nationals (South Africans) visa fees to now pay for EU nationals freedom of travel (and the administration that it brings)?
Conclusions for now
There are still no contingency plans drawn up to address Brexit. There are actually no government plans in place to address the publics vote to exit.
Theresa May, the temporary Prime Minister (who is pro-immigration and has been forced to implement anti-immigration policies), has committed to concluding Britains exit from the EU negotiation by Dec 2017. Only when the UK government conclude the negotiation, will we then see what the UK government values and prioritises.
At this stage, South Africans should be considering diversifying their investment. Hedging their bets on SA’s economy by buying into the UK (especially whilst the Pound exchange rate is weak).
I am not saying transfer all investments from SA across now. In fact, after the recent elections, SA’s economy is taking steps in the right direction and I am optimistic about the potential.
I am however saying consider investing into the UK now while the buy-in is low.