The UK Government has officially opened a 12-week public consultation on a major overhaul of its settlement (ILR) system. The headline proposal:
5-year ILR routes could be replaced with a 10-year baseline — and in some cases, 15 years.

Nothing has changed yet.
But the consultation signals strong political intent, and if approved, the new rules could come into effect in 2026.

Move Up has reviewed the full consultation so South Africans know exactly what’s being proposed, who is affected, and how to plan ahead.

1. What Is the UK Proposing?

The consultation suggests replacing the current ILR landscape with a new “earned settlement” model.

The key changes on the table:

1.1 A 10-Year Baseline for ILR

Most work and family routes that currently qualify for ILR after 5 years would shift to 10 years.

1.2 15-Year Paths for Certain Roles

Lower-wage or lower-skilled occupations — including many in the Health & Care sector — could face a 15-year timeline before qualifying for settlement.

1.3 “Earned Settlement” Requirements

Settlement would no longer be granted simply for completing time in the UK.
Applicants may need to demonstrate:

• • • Contribution (earnings, taxes, work history)

    • Integration (community participation, improved English, civic knowledge)

    • Character (criminality thresholds tightened)

    • Residence compliance

1.4 ILR Might No Longer Unlock Public Funds

A major shift: ILR may continue to carry NRPF (No Recourse to Public Funds).
Access to benefits may only begin at British citizenship.

2. Why Now?

The UK has seen record migration since 2021.
Current projections show 1.6 million people on track to gain ILR between 2026–2030 under old rules.

The UK government wants to:

• • Slow down long-term settlement

  • Reduce fiscal pressures

  • Tighten access to the welfare system

  • Encourage “contribution-based” migration pathways

3. When Could the New Rules Start?

⏳ The consultation runs for 12 weeks.

After that, drafts will be refined and moved into law.

📅 Expected implementation: mid to late 2026

This gives South Africans time to plan — but not time to ignore it.

4. Who Would Be Affected?

SAFE (not affected):

• • People who already hold Indefinite Leave to Remain

  • EUSS Settled/Pre-Settled Status

  • Windrush routes

IMPACTED (if new rules are approved):

• • Skilled Worker visa holders

  • Health & Care Workers (especially lower-paid roles)

  • UK Ancestry visa holders

  • Family route applicants

  • People already in the UK who don’t yet have ILR

  • People planning to move to the UK in 2026 and beyond

5. What This Could Mean for South Africans

Here’s a practical route-by-route summary using plain English:

Skilled Worker Visa

Current: 5 years to ILR
Proposed: 10 years (and possibly 15 for RQF Level <6 roles)

Impact:

• • Longer timelines

  • More requirements

  • Earnings and tax history become important

Health & Care Visa

Current: 5 years
Proposed: 10–15 years (especially for lower-wage roles or dependants)

Impact:

• • This group is explicitly mentioned in the consultation

  • Expect the biggest changes here

UK Ancestry Visa

Current: 5 years
Proposed: 10 years

Impact:

• • Still one of the most flexible long-term routes

  • But ILR becomes a longer journey

Family Route (Partner/Spouse)

Current: 5–10 years
Proposed: Likely to standardise at 10 years (with possible fast-track exceptions)

Impact:

• • Still one of the more stable paths

  • But ILR likely shifts to 10 years for most